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AFC East Update – Jason Taylor Stays in Miami

 5-17-09

The AFC East hasn’t changed that much, aside from the arrival of one certain superstar (we’ll get to that later). If anything, the division has gone back in time to the 1007 NFL betting season when Tom Brady and Randy Moss terrorized the league en rout to a 16-0 SU (10-6 ATS) season. The Jets, Dolphins and Bills are all entering rebuilding stages but is anybody poised to challenge the 2010 Superbowl favorites?

Brady’s Back As New England Rejoices

Tom Brady has apparently made a full recovery from the gut wrenching knee injury that debilitated him through last season. That’s when the coaching genius of Bill Belichik was at full pace, putting Matt Cassell in his place and steadying the Patriots to a staggering and unbelievable 11-5 SU record. Along the way they were 9-7 ATS, and the line normalized within reason.

With Brady back, the Patriots are going to be an impossible bet. You have to measure them against the major contenders. Indy is getting old. San Diego is falling apart. The Giants are one receiver short of greatness. And while Tennessee and Baltimore are definite threats, the real team they have to keep their eye on is Pittsburgh. Simply put the, AFC is sinking fast and the Patriots will have easy picking this season. Expect more double-digit nail biters for New England’s betting faithful.

NFL Betting Line: +275 to win AFC

Owens Lands In Buffalo; Everybody Terrified

And they’re terrified for different reasons. The AFC East is rightfully nervous that they have to deal with what may be a surprising Buffalo team. Everyone in Buffalo is scared that Owens is going to drag the Bills in to the ground. Let’s be clear on this, boys and girls. T.O. is not Scott Norwood. T.O. is not Scott Norwood.

Buffalo opened last season undefeated after the first month, against the betting line and straight up. Then they imploded in to a 7-9 SU season after Trent Edwards went down due to injury. Everyone hates Edwards production, but any quarterback that can anchor a talented roster is good enough for me. If Lynch can overcome his off-field drama and T.O. can keep the drama off the actual field, the Bills are everyone’s favorite Wild Card pick.

(By the way, whenever an NFL preview includes hope based on “if’s”, then it’s never a good sign.)

NFL Betting Line: +2000 to win AFC

Jason Taylor Stay In Miami…For Cheap

Taking a $7 million paycut says a lot about a guy, and that’s just what Jason Taylor did to stay with coach Tony Sparano and the deadly Dolphins. That means that Joey Porter and Taylor will reform of the better pairs for veteran defensive-ends in the league. Will that be enough to push Miami over the top?

My doubts remain on the wear and tear of Chad Pennington’s poor, poor shoulders. There is zero doubt in my mind that Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will return to proper form in Miami. It’s whether or not the sudden appearance of Greg Camarillo was a flash-in-the-pan, or whether Ted Ginn Jr. will be the 14.1 yards per catch monster he emerged as last season. IF anything’s holding back the Fins, it’s the receiving corps. What does that mean? Great lines for Dolphins bettors!

NFL Betting Line: +2000 to win AFC

Jets Soaring…To Ineptitude!

Two pissed off running backs. One disgruntled quarterback. One brand new quarterback. Their best receiver, and most reliable one at that, is gone. And Mangini is still the head coach. It’s not that I doubt Dirty Sanchez from USC. It’s that the team itself is very shallow. On defense, they’re average. On offense, they have one receiving threat and two guys in the backfield that are unhappy with contracts and playing time. Depth in the case of injury, fatigue and emergency is imperative to success in the NFL…especially when you barely have one marquee guy on the team. Plaxico, anyone?

NFL Betting Line: +1800 to win AFC

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