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NFL Props - Receiving Yards

7-01-09

The NFL betting season is just over a month away and GSP will have your free football picks posted on a weekly basis. However, you don’t have to wait to get some pigskin wagers in, with a ton of NFL futures already available.

Today’s NFL futures focus is on the “most receiving yards” prop. Bettors may think simply taking last year’s receiving leader is the way to go, but it isn’t that easy considering a different player has led the league in receiving for the last eight seasons.

Last year Andre Johnson led all receivers with 1,575 yards. That was 144 yards more than the next player in line, Larry Fitzgerald, and 155 yards more than Steve Smith. You would think that Johnson would be the favorite to lead the league again, but it is actually Fitzgerald and Smith who are on top of the NFL odds as co-favorites. Fitzgerald and Smith both currently clock in at +600, while Johnson and Reggie Wayne follow them both at +700. Wayne finished with only 1,145 receiving yards last season, but gets respect from the oddsmakers because he led the league in yards in 2007.

Despite Johnson and Fitzgerald finishing one-two in yards last season Smith may actually be the smart pick for bettors. Smith may have finished 155 yards back of Johnson last season, but he actually led the league in receiving yards per game with 101.5. Johnson, to compare, averaged 98.4 per game. The only reason Smith did not overtake Johnson was because he only played 14 games compared to Johnson’s 16 - remember, Smith was suspended for the first two games of the season last year. If Smith can maintain the best receiving average in the league again he should take the receiving title for the second time in his career; Smith led the league in receiving during the 2005 season.

The big question mark this year is Randy Moss. Last season Moss recorded only 1,008 yards with Matt Cassel throwing him the ball. Now, with Tom Brady back, Moss’ numbers should quickly bounce back to where they usually are. Will that be enough to get him the league lead in yards? It may not be, because when Brady and Moss were breaking records in 2007 he still finished second in the league behind Wayne. In his 11-year NFL career Moss has never led the league in receiving, but he has been in the Top 3 five times. That’s why he is a +1200 underdog on the NFL odds.

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