Predicting Great ATS Teams - Is it Possible?
8/23/10
Written by Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis . com


Every year, there are some tremendous ATS teams who finish with a record of 11-5 ATS or better. That's right, these teams finish at a minimum of 69% ATS, and at times can go all the way to the upper 80% and lower 90% range, such as New England's 13-2-1 (87%) in 03 and San Diego's 13-1-2 (93%) in 04.

Is it possible to predict who these great ATS teams will be? Teams who will beat the spread at least 2 times out of every 3 games? Is there some type of formula out there that exists to predict which teams will finish with great ATS records?

The answer is yes. For the last six years, there are a number of key parameters that can be used to help determine which teams may be poised to have tremendous ATS years. But first, a background on how this works:

As we know, bookmakers set the lines and they set the lines based upon public perception of the teams. Some teams are either so good or are able to slip along slightly under the radar in such a way to enable them to consistently cover their spreads. Other teams are overhyped or expected to be great and thus they lose too much line value every game and can't reliably cover their spreads.

In the last 6 NFL seasons, there have been at least 2 teams per year and there have been 19 teams total to finish with an 11-5 or better record ATS. Here are the teams:

2009 49ers 11-4-1
2009 Falcons 11-5
2009 Packers 11-5
2008 Giants 12-4
2008 Ravens 12-4
2008 Titans 12-4
2008 Saints 11-4-1
2007 Packers 12-3-1
2007 Browns 12-4
2007 Jaguars 11-5
2007 Chargers 11-5
2006 Titans 11-5
2006 Jets 11-5
2005 Broncos 11-4-1
2005 Giants 11-5
2004 Chargers 13-1-2
2004 Patriots 11-4-1
2004 Bills 11-5
2004 Steelers 11-5

Let's investigate the parameters, one by one, and then look at the teams we can eliminate, and those that remain who are most likely to be candidates to win 11+ games ATS in 2010.


Parameter #1: Great ATS teams can't be off a season in which they won their division = 46-2 (96%)

Of the 48 defending division champions since 2004, there have been just two who were able to win 11+ ATS games the following season: the 2004 Patriots and the 2007 Chargers. We already know that the 2004 Patriots were the only back-to-back Super Bowl Champions of the 2000s, thus a great team. The 2007 Chargers were another unique team: going 14-2 their prior season (but just 9-7 ATS) they lost in the playoffs to the Patriots, and then fired HC Schottenheimer and replaced him with Norv Turner. Expectations were down and the rest of the AFC West was expected to be tough again, as the prior season 3 teams finished 9-7 or better in the AFC West. With mixed expectations, San Diego went 11-5 SU and ATS, in large part due to the AFC West taking a big step backwards (Denver went 7-9 and both Oakland and KC went 4-12). Aside from those two teams, none of the other great ATS teams were tops in their division the prior season. Thus, though it is possible one of these teams can be a 11+ ATS win team in 2010, the odds are against them.

Eliminates: Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, Cardinals

Parameter #2: Great ATS teams can't be off a season in which they won 10+ games ATS = 30-2 (94%)

Since 2004, there have been 32 teams who won 10+ games ATS. The following season, there have been just 2 of those 32 teams who were able to win 11+ games ATS: the 2004 Patriots and the 2008 Giants. Both teams were defending Super Bowl champions and the Patriots won the Super Bowl again the following season. So both teams were tremendously solid. The other 30 teams who were off 10+ ATS wins had an average ATS the following season of 7-8-1 ATS and just 8-8 SU. The simple fact is that teams who treated bettors very well the prior season typically can't do it for a second straight season unless they fall into a very elite category. So we need to eliminate teams who hit 10+ games ATS last year, and realize that while it is possible for one of these teams to win 11+ ATS games this season, it is highly unlikely based on history.

Eliminates: Falcons, 49ers, Packers, Vikings, Colts and Browns

Parameter #3: Great ATS teams can't be off a season in which they won 11+ games SU = 50-3 (94%)

Since 2004, there have been 53 teams who won 10 or more games in the prior season. Just 3 of these teams were able to win 11+ ATS games the following season: the 2004 Patriots, the 2007 Chargers and the 2009 Falcons. The Falcons were actually only 7-5 ATS to start the season, and then with RB Michael Turner missing 5 games and QB Matt Ryan missing 2 games, the lines moved in their favor and they were able to go 4-0 ATS to close the season. Once again, the list of teams who couldn't win 11+ games ATS following a 10+ SU win season is much longer than those that were able to pull it off. Thus this eliminates a large number of teams in 2010.

Eliminates: Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, Packers, Saints


With these three parameters, we have eliminated a total of 13 teams in 2010:

Bengals
Browns
Cardinals
Chargers
Colts
Cowboys
Eagles
49ers
Falcons
Packers
Patriots
Saints
Vikings

We can't 100% say these teams won't win 11+ ATS games, but if they did, it is against the odds and we're looking for better options. We ran through the top 3 parameters to rule out teams from last season. We eliminated 13 teams. Looking at the remaining 19 teams, there are 2 almost perfect parameters to help us determine which teams we can include in the argument as teams who are capable of winning 11+ games ATS this year:


Parameter #4: Great ATS teams can't finish below .500 in the current season = 79-0 (100%)

Simply put, there have been 79 teams with losing records at the end of the season since 2004, and none of them won 11+ games ATS. So we can safely eliminate any team from our discussion who we think will finish 2010 with a losing record.

Parameter #5: Great ATS teams finish in either 1st or 2nd place in their division in the current season = 95-1 (99%)

Each year there are 16 teams in the league who finish in 3rd or 4th place in their own division. That means 96 teams since 2004. And only one time has one of these 3rd or 4th place teams finished with 11+ ATS wins: The 2004 Buffalo Bills. The 04 Bills saw the departure of HC Gregg Williams (now Saints DC) and the offensive minded HC Mike Mularkey (now Falcons OC). The Bills went from one of the worst offensive teams in the league (scoring 15 ppg and finishing 6-10) to scoring 25 ppg and finishing 9-7, narrowly missing the playoffs but going 11-5 ATS. So we can eliminate any team who we think will finish 2010 in either 3rd or 4th place in their division.


Determine which teams to look out for in 2010

Now that we've eliminated 13 teams in 2010 and know that the teams who will have 11+ ATS wins will be at least .500 won't finish in 3rd or 4th place in their division this year, we should be able to determine which teams to look out for this year.

Below you will find a listing of the teams in each division, listed in order of finish from 2009. The 13 teams we eliminated are in red. Your task now is to rank the teams in order of how you think they will finish the season in 2010. And then determine which teams you can consider as potential teams for winning 11+ games ATS.

Remember, the team must finish in 1st or 2nd place and you have to think they will win at least 8 games. And you cannot chose any team in red below. Good luck, and remember, every year at least 2 teams win 11+ games ATS, and the past 3 seasons, 11 teams (an avg of 3.7 per year) won 11+ games ATS.

This exercise is not 100% accurate as you can see from above and there are a (very) few exceptions to the rule. But for the most part, it is very accurate and a great drill for you to perform in order to recognize which teams are primed for great ATS seasons. These teams can truly be bet week in and week out with tremendous results. However, finding the teams and then isolating the best situations in which to use them can prove to be invaluable. As an example, in 2008 Sharp predicted Baltimore would be a great team ATS. Sharp bet on Baltimore 5 times during the season and went 4-1 (80%). The Ravens ultimately went 12-4 (75%) ATS that season.

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