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Sports Betting Expectations

This football season has been a very interesting one to say the least. The good news is if you are here reading this informative article, hopefully we have nixed the notion of 70% winners, inside information, and so called "locks".

We like to think with the growing popularity of more and more players are learning realistic expectations, discipline, and are now focusing on a long term goal, yet it only takes one lousy day in the NFL or College for uniformed bettors to shoot us an email and say your picks suck.

The disappointing part is while most of these emails are coming from first time uneducated buyers, quite a few are from players that have bought our daily Saturday and Sunday picks on more than 1 occasion, and have enjoyed remarkable results betting those picks.

An example was this gentleman in particular who had bought picks on 4 previous Saturday or Sunday's. We had gone 5-0, 4-1, 3-2, and 3-2 respectfully for him. Than last Saturday we had a disappointing 1-4 day and this customer wrote in and said "What is going on, I lost my shirt today? I can make better picks than this; I am not paying you guys to lose me money. How the hell can someone go 1-4?" This coming from the same guy that after the first 2 days signing up with us said "your picks are great you have a customer for the rest of the season!" Amazing how someone's point of view can change on a week to week basis. In our defense 4 of the 5 picks were steamed by the Wiseguys on game day so sharp money did agree with our selections, we just happened to have the games go against us that particular day.

We took a look back at the records and saw that this individual had purchased picks from us 5 times. 4 out of the 5 days (80% of the time) we had profited, and overall we had won 64% of the picks, yet he was still not satisfied. We told this customer and all customers that sign up after a losing day that we don't judge results on a week to week basis and you should have that same outlook if you are serious about making money sports betting long term. To illustrate this further we wanted to give you an idea of what you can expect on a typical Saturday or Sunday when we have our normal 5 football picks. Here is the break down of our handicappers at Guaranteed Sports Picks picking 58% winners for a football season.

5-0 6.56%
4-1 23.76%
3-2 34.41%
2-3 24.92%
1-4 9.02%
0-5 1.30%

From the table above you will see that about 35% of the time we are not going to profit and that is the realization you have to acknowledge if you are a daily pick buyer. This may come to a shock to some of you but it is a cold hard fact. This is one of the many reasons why we recommend that all players get signed up for the full season package. It will save you money in the long run and will help keep you on course when we have those dreaded 1-4 days. There will be losing streaks along the way, but the winning streaks will outnumber the losing ones and being a full season member you won't "give up" and will be aboard when those winning streaks occur to recoup losses. The good news is that about 60% of the time you are going to profit and if you stay focused with a strong money management plan, wield a little self control, and concentrate on the long term, you are going to be up a nice chunk of change at seasons end.

Now we recognize that not everyone has the bankroll, persistence, or desire to bet daily. We also understand that a lot of you do this as a recreational hobby and are not too concerned with money management, discipline, and long term goals. We have no problem with those players and respect them for their honestly. You realize that our picks are long term winners and you are better off paying us a small fee so you can have a good chance to win more often than not on Saturday or Sunday opposed to you making the picks on your own. Most of those people don't complain after a losing day but if you are one of those people that are considering it you will be pointed to this article before and after the fact. We waste too much time answering emails from 1st time buyers that have unrealistic expectations after a losing day, and to solve this matter this article was written.

*High Rated Releases*

A couple times a week during the football season Guaranteed Sports Picks will release stronger 4 unit and 5 unit rated picks. Often these games will be labeled as a High Rated Release play, Big Ten Game of the Year, AFC Game of the Year, or College Football Game of the Month, etc. Like all over the website, these are not locks, or 100% picks. Every time one of these picks lose some really stupid emails come flooding in to our inbox. Your picks suck, I can pick better, how the hell is that a game of the year....

The difference between a 3 unit and 4 unit plays is a couple percentage points. You should not be betting 10 times more on the 4s or 5s, they should be 1-2% more than your normal bets on our 3 unit/normal plays. For an easy example if you are betting $300 on the 3 unit picks, a 4 unit play is $400, and 5 unit would be $500, not $5,000!!!

From a 4 unit to a 5 unit rating the picks are virtual identical, but there is often a little tidbit, key number, or strong situation to push it up to the 5 unit level. To take an example from a recent Saturday in college football, we had strong situations on 3 underdogs. Florida, Washington State, & Iowa where all very strong underdog plays that fit into a situation we have used with success for years. Iowa was the only line that was +10 during the week and was given a 5 unit rating (big ten game of the year) and just happened to be the loser of the group while the other 2 won easily.

If Washington State or Florida would have been +10 they would have also been 5 unit picks, although the chances of that happening where everything lines up on a Saturday and we have three 5 unit selections would be quite rare and has never happened. If Iowa never gets to 10, we have a 4 unit pick at +9.5 and no one is complaining. If you bet Iowa for 5 units and didn't get +10, that is a no no, as it would have never been a 5 unit play at +9.5.

The point is, yeah it sucks that 5 unit games lose but long term they win at a slightly higher rate and you need to use proper money management instead of going all in and getting crushed if they lose. As for that Saturday example we won 5 of the 8 picks overall and a very healthy profit was turned for those that used proper money management.

There are no guarantees in sports betting, we cant forecast a team fumbling a kickoff and the other team running it back in for a TD, or a starting QB being hurt on the first play of the game. What we can is make solid bets and rate the picks accordingly to give members the most profitable year at seasons end.

Most ask than why label any pick a game of the year? The answer is in the end this is still a business and marketing of picks within reason should be expected from a smart capper/businessman.

A simple adage we like to use at is "We don't ask for pats on the back when we win, just as we don't expect our balls busted when we lose." If you are one of those people who judge results on a week to week basis we are probably not the service for you and sports betting in general is probably something you might want to reconsider. But if you share the same long term outlook and goals as Guaranteed Sports Picks, we can lead you to a very successful betting career.

Click here to get on board with a long term winning sports handicapping service.

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