Everyone has their
own NFL handicapping strategy, especially for picking football winners.
Heck, there must be a thousand different Cheat Sheets available on the
Internet. While GSP does not subscribe to any particular system --
and we certainly don't endorse any of the so-called handicapping Gurus
- we at GSP would like to share with you some free NFL betting tips, advice, and
strategies, that may be useful.
Football Point Spread - Spotting a Bargain:
Can 3½ points be a
better line than 9½ points? You bet! Football scoring is a numbers
game ...points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With
this in mind, its important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the
bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively high
percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers,
it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point
spreads. Well over half of all NFL football games end with one of ten
possible differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or
17. So, the Half-Point move off any of these numbers can represent a
significant NFL betting opportunity.
For example, a line
of +3.5 is a BARGAIN compared to that same underdog at +3 ...this indicates that
the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order
to win the game. So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered
much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5. And, by the
very same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET
on the underdog. These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3
can be much more significant than larger changes. For instance, a line
change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because NFL football
games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5
doesn't make much difference. When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5
points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.
3. The 13
Most Important Numbers For NFL Betting:
To gamble on NFL
football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to
occur than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different numbers
represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores! It's true! When
predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS
...7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31.
These numbers (plus
scores in the category of Over 40 ) are the only real numbers worth considering
when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions
accordingly should you choose to go it alone. In other words, say you've
forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 ...this score probably
won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of
occurring ...say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread
worthy of consideration.
Your NFL Betting Money Count:
prospective gamblers beware! Most gambling hype you read, see, or hear in
regard to betting sports is misinformed, erroneous or simply designed to take
your money before you even place a bet. In order to be successful sports
bettor, you have to have skills in money management, play selection, a good
attitude, and reasonable expectations as to what you can expect to win if you
are successful. Let's look at a safe method of money
|$20 - $30
|$40 - $50
Downs, And Streaks:
Most NFL gamblers
start the season with absolutely no clue as to how much capital it takes to
withstand the ups and downs of a typical NFL football season. You should
give yourself enough money to actually make some at the end of the year.
NFL gambling is nearly always full of streaks. With some of the NFL
handicapping services out there, you're still going to lose up to 35 percent of
your bets, especially, if you go it alone, (without an NFL handicapper).
So be prepared. You've got a bankroll, so what's next?
Divide it up as
Here is the important
part. Never risk more than 25 percent to 30 percent of your bankroll on
any week. In other words, if you like 5 pro games you will bet 6 percent
of our bankroll on each game. On the best plays you will bet 8 percent and
maybe 2 to 3 times a year you will find a game that's worth 10 percent of your
bankroll. If you love a lot of action, simply drop your bet size (2
percent to 3 percent), but never risk more than 33 percent of your bankroll in
one day. If you win one week, your bankroll is larger so you'll
automatically increase your bets as you win and conversely decrease your bets as
The purpose of the
reserve is to re-capitalize one of your bankrolls if the season starts out cold
and you hit an early losing streak. In a typical year you should be
cautious weeks 1 - 4, be bold weeks 5 - 12, and then revert to caution until the
playoffs and Super Bowl games. This is a simple money management scheme
and we do coach you on taking profits or when to use your reserve as the season
progresses. There are more sophisticated methods of money management
available, but for most people this method should work just fine.
Start betting the way you usually do, and then do the same using the money
management method (imaginary). Then keep track of your hypothetical
bankrolls using this method. This should give you a good idea of how the
system works at the very least, which in itself is a start in the right
In closing, we trust you
found this reading to be enjoyable and informative. GSP wishes you the
best of luck in the 2005 NFL season.