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NFL Betting Tips, Strategy and Some Advice

Everyone has their own NFL handicapping strategy, especially for picking football winners.  Heck, there must be a thousand different Cheat Sheets available on the Internet.  While GSP  does not subscribe to any particular system -- and we certainly don't endorse any of the so-called handicapping Gurus   - we at GSP would like to share with you some free NFL betting tips, advice, and strategies, that may be useful.

1.   Football Point Spread - Spotting a Bargain:

Can 3 points be a better line than 9 points?  You bet!  Football scoring is a numbers game ...points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8.  With this in mind, its important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others.  Because a relatively high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point spreads.  Well over half of all NFL football games end with one of ten possible differences in the score:  1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17.  So, the Half-Point move off any of these numbers can represent a significant NFL betting opportunity.

2.   Watch For Threes:

For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN compared to that same underdog at +3 ...this indicates that the favored team must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win the game.  So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.  And, by the very same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET on the underdog.  These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger changes.  For instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing.  Because NFL football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference.  When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.

3.   The 13 Most Important Numbers For NFL Betting:

To gamble on NFL football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely to occur than other scores.  Would you believe that only 13 different numbers represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!  It's true!  When predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL NUMBERS ...7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31. 

These numbers (plus scores in the category of Over 40 ) are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome.  Always adjust your predictions accordingly should you choose to go it alone.  In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 ...this score probably won't happen!  Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring ...say, 31-24 or 28-27.  Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration.

4.   Make Your NFL Betting Money Count:

Gamblers or prospective gamblers beware!  Most gambling hype you read, see, or hear in regard to betting sports is misinformed, erroneous or simply designed to take your money before you even place a bet.  In order to be successful sports bettor, you have to have skills in money management, play selection, a good attitude, and reasonable expectations as to what you can expect to win if you are successful.  Let's look at a safe method of money management:


Size of Bet Recommended Minimum Bankroll
$20 - $30 per game $1,000 - $2,000
$40 - $50 per game $2,000 - $3,000
$100 per game $5,000
$500 per game $25,000


5.   Ups, Downs, And Streaks:

Most NFL gamblers start the season with absolutely no clue as to how much capital it takes to withstand the ups and downs of a typical NFL football season.  You should give yourself enough money to actually make some at the end of the year.  NFL gambling is nearly always full of streaks.  With some of the NFL handicapping services out there, you're still going to lose up to 35 percent of your bets, especially, if you go it alone, (without an NFL handicapper).  So be prepared.  You've got a bankroll, so what's next?

Divide it up as follows:


Bankroll Average Bet Pro Reserve
$1,000 $25 $400 $200
$2,000 $50 $800 $400
$5,000 $100 $2,000 $1,000
$25,000 $500 $10,000 $5,000

Here is the important part.  Never risk more than 25 percent to 30 percent of your bankroll on any week.  In other words, if you like 5 pro games you will bet 6 percent of our bankroll on each game.  On the best plays you will bet 8 percent and maybe 2 to 3 times a year you will find a game that's worth 10 percent of your bankroll.  If you love a lot of action, simply drop your bet size (2 percent to 3 percent), but never risk more than 33 percent of your bankroll in one day.  If you win one week, your bankroll is larger so you'll automatically increase your bets as you win and conversely decrease your bets as you lose.

The purpose of the reserve is to re-capitalize one of your bankrolls if the season starts out cold and you hit an early losing streak.  In a typical year you should be cautious weeks 1 - 4, be bold weeks 5 - 12, and then revert to caution until the playoffs and Super Bowl games.  This is a simple money management scheme and we do coach you on taking profits or when to use your reserve as the season progresses.  There are more sophisticated methods of money management available,  but for most people this method should work just fine.  Start betting the way you usually do, and then do the same using the money management method (imaginary).  Then keep track of your hypothetical bankrolls using this method.  This should give you a good idea of how the system works at the very least, which in itself is a start in the right direction.

In closing, we trust you found this reading to be enjoyable and informative.  GSP wishes you the best of luck in the 2005 NFL season.

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